Poll Shows Tight Two-Way Democratic Primary in Florida’s 24th Congressional District

Oliver Gilbert and Shevrin Jones, the leading candidates in Florida's 24th Congressional District Democratic primary.

A new poll suggests Florida’s 24th Congressional District Democratic primary is shaping up as a competitive two-candidate race, with Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert and state Sen. Shevrin Jones separated by just three percentage points while a large share of voters remain undecided.

The survey marks the latest development in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson. The Democratic primary features 10 qualified candidates, making it one of Florida’s most competitive congressional contests this election cycle.

According to a St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics, Gilbert leads the Democratic field with 27% support among likely Democratic primary voters. Jones follows closely at 24%, a difference that falls well within the poll’s 5.6 percentage-point margin of error.

The survey also found that 36% of voters remain undecided, leaving the race wide open as candidates continue building support ahead of the 2026 election.

No other candidate reached double-digit support. Kendrick Meek Jr., son of former U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, came closest with just under 10%.

The remaining candidates registered little measurable support. Longtime African Heritage Cultural Arts Center director Marshall Davis and physician Dr. Rudolph Moise each received just over 1%, while former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Jean Monestime and former Wilson staff member Roderick Vereen each polled below 1%.

Endorsements Shape Early Race

Gilbert entered the race with the endorsement of retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, who announced she would not seek another term and publicly backed Gilbert as her preferred successor.

Jones has assembled an extensive coalition of endorsements that includes Broward County Property Appraiser Marty Kiar, Broward County Commissioner Alexandra Davis, former Miami-Dade Commissioners Betty Ferguson and Barbara Jordan, West Park Mayor Felicia Brunson, Pembroke Pines Mayor Angelo Castillo, Hollywood Mayor Josh Levy, the Miami AFL-CIO, United Teachers of Dade, 314 Action, and Equality PAC.

Meanwhile, Meek has earned endorsements from former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Miami Heat legend Alonzo Mourning.

Money Doesn’t Always Equal Momentum

Campaign finance reports show Gilbert has spent more than $301,000 since launching his campaign.

Jones reported raising approximately $148,000 through June while spending nearly $91,000 as his campaign touts more than 50,000 voter contacts and hundreds of volunteers.

Meek has raised nearly $487,000, spending less than $68,000, leaving him with the largest cash reserve in the race despite polling behind the two frontrunners.

Moise has invested heavily in his own campaign, contributing nearly $447,000 of personal funds and spending more than $555,000, the highest expenditure of any candidate in the field. Despite that investment, the poll found him attracting only about 1% support.

Poll Reveals Demographic Differences

The survey found Jones performing slightly better among male voters, receiving 28% support compared to Gilbert’s 25%.

Among women, Gilbert led with nearly 29%, while Jones received 21%.

Jones also showed particular strength among younger voters. He received support from roughly 25% of voters under age 30, while no respondents in that age group selected Gilbert. Jones also narrowly led among voters ages 30 to 49.

Gilbert performed best among voters 50 and older, where nearly 30% supported his candidacy.

Race Remains Fluid

With more than one-third of Democratic voters still undecided, the contest remains highly competitive despite Gilbert and Jones emerging as the early leaders.

As fundraising accelerates, endorsements continue, and campaigns expand voter outreach, the Democratic primary to replace Wilson remains one of Florida’s most closely watched congressional races heading into 2026.