Poll Shows Shevrin Jones Opens 9-Point Lead in Florida CD-24 Democratic Primary

Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Democratic candidate for Florida's 24th Congressional District, during his 2026 congressional campaign.

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — State Sen. Shevrin Jones has opened a 9-point lead over Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert in Florida’s 24th Congressional District Democratic primary, according to a new public poll that suggests the race has entered its final stretch with Jones holding the advantage.

The survey comes less than two weeks before the Aug. 18 primary, when Democratic voters will choose a nominee to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson in one of South Florida’s safest Democratic congressional seats. Because of the district’s strong Democratic registration, the primary winner is widely expected to be favored in November.

The poll shows Jones leading Gilbert by 9 percentage points, marking a significant shift in a contest that earlier surveys had characterized as a close two-candidate race. Previous polling conducted in July found Gilbert narrowly ahead of Jones, with more than one-third of voters still undecided.

Race to replace Frederica Wilson

Wilson’s decision not to seek another term created one of Florida’s most closely watched open congressional contests.

The Democratic field includes Jones, Gilbert, Kendrick Meek Jr., Jean Monestime, Rudy Moise, Marshall Davis and Roderick Vereen, among others. Throughout the campaign, candidates have focused on affordability, housing, health care, economic opportunity and federal investment in South Florida communities.

Jones, who represents parts of Broward and Miami-Dade counties in the Florida Senate, has campaigned on lowering costs for working families, protecting voting rights and expanding access to affordable health care. Gilbert has highlighted his experience leading Miami-Dade County government and his endorsement from Wilson.

Momentum heading into early voting

The latest poll provides Jones with momentum as campaigns make their final push before early voting and Election Day.

While polls offer only a snapshot of voter sentiment, they can influence fundraising, endorsements and campaign strategy during the closing days of a competitive primary. Candidates will continue working to reach undecided voters through television advertising, direct mail, community events and voter outreach.

Political observers caution that public polling should be viewed alongside factors such as turnout, early voting patterns and campaign organization, particularly in low-turnout primary elections.

What comes next

With early voting beginning across much of Florida and the Aug. 18 primary approaching, both Jones and Gilbert are expected to intensify their campaigns across Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The winner will advance to the Nov. 3 general election to compete for the seat being vacated by Wilson after more than a decade in Congress. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean, the primary is expected to play the decisive role in determining Florida’s next representative from Congressional District 24.