New Poll Shows Austin Rogers Taking 10-Point Lead in Florida CD-2 Republican Primary

Austin Rogers, Republican candidate for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, in a campaign graphic ahead of the Aug. 18 primary.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Austin Rogers has opened a double-digit lead in Florida’s crowded 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, according to a new poll released less than a week before voters choose a nominee to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn.

The co/efficient survey, conducted Aug. 10-11, found Rogers leading the Republican field with 25% support, 10 percentage points ahead of Evan Power at 15%.

Luke Murphy followed at 13%, while Keith Gross and Jim Norton each received 8%. Other candidates registered 4% or less.

Despite Rogers’ lead, the race remains unsettled: 26% of likely Republican primary voters said they were undecided.

The survey included 603 likely Republican primary voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Poll was conducted for pro-Rogers committee

The poll was conducted by co/efficient for Panhandle Patriots, a political committee supporting Rogers.

That sponsorship is significant because several recent surveys in the CD-2 contest have been conducted for candidates or groups with interests in the race, producing sharply different snapshots of the Republican electorate.

An internal Cygnal poll released earlier this month showed a substantially different contest. That survey put Gross at 35% and Rogers at 28%, with Power and Norton each at 11%.

A separate Guidant Polling and Strategy survey conducted July 29-31 showed Rogers leading Gross 21% to 17%, with 38% of respondents undecided.

The competing results underscore the uncertainty surrounding a crowded primary in which voters have been exposed to significant campaign advertising and competing messages during the final weeks.

Rogers gains as Gross falls in latest survey

The newest co/efficient numbers are particularly notable for Gross.

After leading Rogers in the Cygnal survey earlier this month, Gross fell to 8% in the latest poll, putting him behind Rogers, Power and Murphy and tied with Norton.

Rogers, meanwhile, has consistently appeared near the top of recent polling.

The Panama City native is a former general counsel to U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and has emphasized his Northwest Florida roots and experience working in Washington during the campaign.

Power, the former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, emerged in second place in the latest survey with 15%, while Murphy’s 13% showing puts three candidates in double digits.

Open seat draws crowded Republican field

The race was triggered by Dunn’s decision not to seek another term in Congress.

Republican voters will choose among a large field that includes Keith Gross, Nick Lewis, Luke Murphy, Jim Norton, Evan Power, Austin Rogers and Audie Rowell, according to official sample-ballot information.

Florida’s 2nd Congressional District stretches across portions of North Florida and the Panhandle and has attracted significant Republican attention because the winner will compete for an open congressional seat rather than challenge an incumbent.

Rogers entered the race in January, presenting himself as a conservative with both local ties and experience on Capitol Hill. Before running for Congress, he served as general counsel to Scott.

Primary enters final stretch

The latest poll arrives as campaigns make their closing arguments ahead of Florida’s Aug. 18 primary election.

The closing sprint comes as Florida mail-ballot requests have fallen sharply compared with the 2022 primary, adding another variable as campaigns work to turn out voters before Election Day.

The large undecided bloc means the contest may still be fluid despite Rogers’ 10-point advantage over his nearest rival in the latest survey.

It also makes the source of each poll particularly important.

The co/efficient survey was conducted for a committee supporting Rogers, while the earlier Cygnal survey showing Gross ahead was an internal poll associated with Gross’ campaign.

With competing campaign-aligned polls producing significantly different results, Tuesday’s vote will provide the definitive test of which campaign’s polling best captured the Republican electorate. The race is among the congressional contests being tracked in The Florida Pundit’s Florida Elections 2026 coverage.

For now, the newest numbers show Rogers entering the final days with the advantage — but with more than one in four likely Republican primary voters still uncommitted.