UNF Poll: Ashley Moody Leads Potential Democratic Rivals in Florida Senate Race

U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody speaks during a public event as a new UNF poll shows her leading potential Democratic challengers in Florida's 2026 Senate race.

A new statewide poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holding comfortable leads over both potential Democratic challengers in Florida’s 2026 U.S. Senate race while Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds continues to maintain an advantage in the race for governor.

The survey, conducted between July 8 and July 17, interviewed 848 likely Florida voters and has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points.

Moody Opens Lead in Senate Matchups

According to the poll, Moody leads Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 50% to 42% in a hypothetical general election matchup.

Against Democratic candidate Alexander Vindman, Moody’s advantage grows to 50% to 40%.

Both margins exceed the poll’s stated margin of error.

The findings suggest Moody begins the general election in a favorable position despite having served only months in the Senate after being appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to succeed Marco Rubio following Rubio’s confirmation as Secretary of State.

Democrats will first decide their nominee in the August 18 primary election, where Nixon and Vindman are competing for the nomination.

Donalds Maintains Lead for Governor

The survey also measured the gubernatorial race.

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds received 46% support, compared to 41% for Democrat David Jolly.

The results are consistent with recent polling that has shown Republicans maintaining an advantage in Florida’s statewide contests heading into the 2026 election cycle.

Donalds has also continued to dominate the Republican primary field in several recent surveys, although this poll measured a hypothetical general election matchup.

Amendment 3 Support Depends on Additional Information

The UNF survey also examined voter attitudes toward Amendment 3, the proposed constitutional amendment that would begin phasing out property taxes on homesteaded residential properties for non-school taxes.

Initially, 61% of respondents supported the amendment after being told local governments would use remaining revenues only for essential public services.

However, support fell to 45% after respondents were informed that the amendment could create an estimated $11.8 billion shortfall in local government revenue.

The findings illustrate how voter support may shift depending on the information provided about the proposal’s potential fiscal impact.

A Competitive Election Cycle

Sean Freeder, director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said the polling reflects a more competitive political environment than Florida has experienced in several recent election cycles.

While Republicans continue to hold advantages in key statewide races, the margins remain narrower than those seen in previous midterm elections.

With less than a month remaining before Florida’s August primary, both parties are expected to intensify their campaigns as they compete to secure nominations and prepare for the November general election.